BUSINESS & PEACE REPORT- PEACE: A GOOD PREDICTOR OF ECONOMIC SUCCESS

Over the last six decades, GDP growth has been three times higher in highly peaceful countries, as measured by the GPI, than in countries with low levels of peace.
Over the last decade, countries with the highest improvements in their GPI score recorded GDP per capita growth seven times higher than those that deteriorated the most.
On average, inflation is three times higher and ten times more volatile in countries ranked at the bottom of the Global Peace Index than countries at the top.
Foreign direct investment inflows are more than two times higher in countries with higher levels of peace.
A one per cent increase in Positive Peace was associated with a 0.9 per cent appreciation in the domestic currency for non-OECD countries between 2010 and 2016.
Improvements in Positive Peace are associated with a 1.4 per cent per annum average appreciation in the domestic currency, while a deterioration in Positive Peace is associated with a 0.4 per cent average depreciation. IEP’s Positive Peace framework offers businesses a new tool to assess the risk of investments and identify the potentially large opportunities that exist in under-examined countries.
Based on historical analysis, low peace countries that are making significant improvements in Positive Peace will be expected to have the strongest economic returns.