IRENA Energy Prospects for the African Power sector
Costs for African projects tend to be higher than in other countries due to the need to import equipment, as well as higher internal transportation costs and import levies. There are often gaps in infrastructure, engineering and institutional capacity that can also raise costs. However, where components can be constructed locally, costs can be reduced significantly. For example this is the case for hydropower dams and the foundations and towers for wind turbines. However, when projects are located in remote areas, the cost of extending transmission systems must be added.
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African economies have been growing at an average rate of around 4% in the last few years. If this trend con- tinues GDP will increase 2.9-fold between 2008 and 2030 and 6.7-fold by 2050. If growth were to acceler- ate to the levels seen in China and India in recent times, GDP levels could rise even further. The GDP growth rate assumptions in this study vary by region (Table 11), but are slightly higher on average than recent growth rates. These differences – in conjunction with today’s variations by region in electricity generation mix, electricity consumption levels and renewable energy potential – will drive the renewable energy outlook by country and region in Africa.
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In the ECOWAS region, electricity supply growth be- tween now and 2030 is dominated by large hydro and to a lesser extent wind (37% and 16% of electricity sup- ply in 2030, respectively). Moreover in this scenario Nigeria imports significant amounts of hydropower from Cameroon and at a later stage from the Grand Inga project in the DRC. Solar capacity in 2020 is at a later stage replaced with imported hydro. The dynamics of this result need to be assessed in more detail at a later stage. In the ECOWAS power pool for Western Africa, significant differences occur in terms of the power mix for each country – ranging from purely large hydro with significant exports (Guinea) to a mixed biomass, wind and mini-hydro supply (Togo/Benin) – and in the importance of trade (Figure 12).